Friday, May 14, 2010

Shikataganai

In August 2009, Hatoyama Yukio and Japan's Democratic Party at last overturned the post-war grip of the loathsome LDP by promising two things: to de-Reaganize (or in this case, de-Koizumi-ize) the society by moving it back toward its traditional post-war (and pre-Koizumi) "horizontal" and egalitarian nature; and by promising to junk the pathetically unequal relationship between Japan and the United States, primarily by closing the Futenma military base on Okinawa, a base that is home to little other than theft, endless ear-splitting noise, and the rape of Okinawan girls.

Well, Barack Obama seems to have found his own Obama.

Gary Leupp.
Hatoyama’s popularity is now down to around 20%. The Asahi Shinbun runs headlines such as “Weak Leadership” and “Hatoyama Strikes Out Again” referring to the Okinawa base issue. Far from being a breath of fresh air, he is more of the same. The U.S.-Japan relationship is not the only issue affecting his popularity; charges of corruption and mishandling of campaign funds, staples of Japanese politics and the nemesis of the LDP, also contribute. But this is probably the biggest issue.

The moral of the story? A change of parties in a U.S. client-state is unlikely to affect the bilateral relationship with the U.S., notwithstanding the popular will. De Gaulle could boot out the U.S. bases from France in 1966, but he is the exception to prove the rule. (He took action after U.S. efforts to supplant or even assassinate him due to his decision to grant Algeria independence, something Washington bitterly opposed, and wrangling over the role of France within NATO.)

Hatoyama is no De Gaulle. Rather, in failing to stand up to Obama, he has become Japan’s Obama: a breaker of campaign promises, a capitulator, a pawn of the Pentagon, a tremendous disappointment to his supporters. But unlike the U.S. president, whose favorable ratings have only fallen from 68% in April 2009 to 44%, hovering around that figure all this year, Hatoyama’s appear to be in free-fall. Such is a lackey’s karma.