When the playoffs began seven weeks ago was there anyone who paid attention to the 2009-10 regular season predicting a Lakers/Celtics NBA finals? Alas.
It's been tough to care about team sports since the birth of my daughter. I root for the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Lakers as much as ever, but the ups and downs emotionally are much flatter. However, being a Lakers-lover for 35 years and a Celtics-hater for just as long, not in this case. . .
Compared to 2008, the pluses for L.A.:
Motivation has flipped. The prime motivator this time is Kobe's drive to overcome '08. Removed is the "haven't won a thing in 22 years" motive on the part of the Smeltics.
Home court has flipped.
Pau Gasol better and much more a part of the team.
Artest.
The "Big Three" (yeah, sure) two years older.
No P.J. Brown.
No Eddie House.
No James Posey.
No Leon Powe. (Boston's major size and rebounding advantage from '08 now mostly gone.)
Kendrick Perkins will be suspended at least one Finals game. (Probably one in Boston, as Phil Jackson earns his bread.)
Doc Rivers has clearly outworn his welcome, hence Boston's regular season.
Rasheed Wallace now with the Celtics.
Vladimir Radmanovic no longer with the Lakers.
Pluses for Boston:
Worse L.A bench than 2008, and that was crap. Basically the bench is one man, Lamar Odom.
Rondo much better.
Nate Robinson.
No Sam Cassell.
Bynum again no factor, despite being two years older and a more important part of the team architecture than in '08. Trade the party guy, preferably for Chris Bosh.
Fisher two years older. He certainly will not play as well against Boston as he did against the Suns.
Perhaps most important, we're not starting from an equal spot. Looking back, the 2008 Celtics were clearly a better team than the 2008 Lakers. Looking back, perhaps the best NBA team since the '01 Lakers.
So the question is, do the pluses and minuses add up enough for L.A. to overcome the '08 gap? Probably. At least enough to make it a coin-flip. The series will come down to calls, injuries, bounces, luck.
Much like the Detroit Pistons in 1988, Boston won't be able to win the title on the Lakers' home floor, so it's either Celtics in 5 or L.A. in 7 -- and this Boston team just ain't that good. Lakers in 7. In reality, a wash.
